I would like to come up with series of four blogs on TN politics and in the first part would like to go over the Parties in General. I would like to go over the parties with SWOT analysis by that way we get a clear picture on some of the major parties. This election is the first one where stalwarts like Karunanidhi ayya and Jayalalitha mam are not present; They both had huge amount of experience and definitely had an impact at National level and some of Karunanidhi ayya’s moves in the past has fetched rich dividends for the state. While TN is cribbing about Jaya’s loss she was one iron lady who had to muster courage and kind of single handedly worked for the welfare of the state.
DMK
For DMK, this is Do or die situation and with ten years out of power party is desperately looking to
reverse tables and the recently concluded Manadu in Trichy spanning across close to 300 acres,
parking for 400 acres and chairs being brought from Andra just endorses how badly they are
in need of victory.
Strength – Major political party in TN which has uncanny habit of extracting funds from centre, DMK won 23 seats in 2019 Lok Sabha Election, Support from minority communities
Weakness: Lack of leadership, lack of bench strength, DMK’s allies are not strong enough (Manithaneya Makkal Katchi, Indian Union Muslim League)
Opportunities: People of TN has this habit of shuffling between DMK and AIADMK and this may work towards DMK’s advantage as people may look out for change, MK Stalin comes with huge experience and is preferred candidate for CM post
Threats: Internal conflict within the party, party’s inability to contest all by itself in 234 constituencies, emergence of smaller parties
AIADMK
I should say AIADMK has done fairly a decent job with good governance and is pretty much on the driver’s seat. The way party handled pandemic during March – June 2020 were incredible and definitely earned lot of respect from public. Chief Minister seems to be approachable and has definitely made lot of progress in upliftment of the state.
Strength: There is no serious opposition for AIADMK is the ugly truth, Handling of pandemic, strong backing from BJP
Weakness: Being a puppet under BJP may work against the party in the long run, not having enough seats in the Lok sabha level hurts AIADMK
Opportunities: There is positive buzz on CM and if he can translate this buzz into the next five years then EPS will be a big force to reckon in Tamil nadu political circle
Threats: TTV is definitely a threat to AIADMK and according to me he has good political acumen; Sasikala is out of the equation but she can create some noise at any time
MNM
With Karunanidhi ayya and Jayalalitha mam out of the race and Rajini opting out of politics and
with Vijayakanth not doing well in terms of health there cannot be a better time for Kamal ji to make
inroads in this election. I am super confident that MNM will bag good percentage of votes and may
even emerge as third biggest party in the state.
Strength – Youth crowd and Thai kulam (women fraternity) support Kamalhaasan and Kamal may even end up winning in places like South Chennai, Coimbatore; Guy is smart and there is no doubt on it; People who badly want a change will opt for Kamalhaasan. Some of his interviews off late is like watching vintage Maniratnam classics and he is sure to get support from literate society.
Weakness: When a heroine is introduced into filmdom she does a heroine centric role and bags all awards with her performance but then she loses focuses after teaming up with commercial directors saying her role demanded skin show. I think this is going to be with the case for Kamal, he is going to make all people make a note of his party in this election and then join hands with parties in the name of allies and then his vision gets diluted. One other weakness for Kamal is people are curious to know who funds for his party operations? People also are skeptical if he cannot adjust with a lady under the institution of marriage how will he manage a state ?
Opportunities: Kamal has a vision and being street smart he may adopt institutional approach in politics and may inject fresh lease of life;
Threats: As a small party it takes quite some time to climb up the ladder and his candidates can change minds and join opposition parties since power dictates where a candidate wants to join.
Short Snippets from other parties:
*Personally I like TTV Dinakaran and if he is in the right place he can go places but as of now his party AMMK will not have much impact. Just like the way he handles media
*Sarathkumar’s All India Samathuva Makkal Katchi will make its presence felt in the state as they are teaming with Kamal’s MNM
*Pattaali Makkal Katchi is teaming with AIADMK and they made a smart move of requesting Vanniyar quota precondition
before the polls and now that AIADMK approved their request we may see PMK make its presence
felt as they would bag caste based votes
*Vijayakanth’s DMDK arch rival is PMK and since they have secured 23 seats it was asking atleast 23 seats to AIADMK and since AIADMK rejected the offer DMDK came out of the alliance and may most probably team up with Kamal's MNM
*Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi, Puthiya Tamilagam, Tamil Maanila congress all may have very minor role to play on the final output
*Seeman’s party is Naam Tamilar Katchi was constantly in the news criticizing Rajinikanth on his moves and now that Rajinikanth has
backed out Seeman and his party are no longer in the news. Classic example of negative publicity can
take you only certain distance and beyond that you have to prove your mettle.
*Vaiko’s MDMK is sure to give meme creators lot of work
As of today pendulum is sliding towards AIADMK
Next blog: BJP vs Congress, Elections & Constituencies
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